POLITICAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL TYPOLOGY OF INSTITUTIONAL STABILITY AND STATE FRAGILITY RISKS AMONG AFRICAN STATES IN THE CONTEXT OF UKRAINE’S GEOSTRATEGIC PRIORITIES

Abstract

Background. Since 2022, Ukraine has been actively expanding its presence on the African continent. As partnership relations develop, there is a growing need for a deeper understanding of the internal heterogeneity of African states, since formal de jure sovereignty does not always correspond to their actual capacity for effective governance and territorial control. Under these conditions, institutional analysis enables a more comprehensive assessment of the opportunities and risks of interaction, while also identifying additional significant factors relevant to the development of Ukraine’s relations with African states.

The aim of the study is to develop a political and geographical typology of African states based on indicators of public governance quality and state fragility risks, and to formulate recommendations regarding Ukraine’s geostrategic priorities on the basis of the proposed typology.

Methods. The study applies an institutional approach, as well as comparative, multidimensional, and cross-analysis methods. Principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means cluster analysis were used for the clustering procedure, with the quality of clustering assessed using the silhouette score. The empirical basis of the study consists of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the Fragile States Index (FSI). The country groups identified through the analysis were interpreted from the perspective of political-geographical and institutional analysis.

Results. The study revealed substantial heterogeneity among African states in terms of public governance quality. Based on cluster analysis, four types of countries were identified, differing in their levels of institutional resilience, political stability, and the extent of state fragility risks. Two principal components were identified through PCA: the first reflects the overall level of governance quality, while the second captures the relative distinction between political stability and institutional effectiveness. Cross-analysis with the Fragile States Index confirmed an association between declining public governance quality and increasing state fragility. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were formulated regarding the use of the typology as an analytical tool for assessing the partnership environment of African states in the context of Ukraine’s foreign policy priorities.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in combining the institutional approach with multidimensional statistical analysis in order to develop a political and geographical typology of African states. A comprehensive comparison of levels of public governance, institutional resilience, and state fragility across African countries was carried out. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were formulated taking into account both the institutional characteristics of African states and the current level and format of Ukraine’s interaction with these states.

Conclusions. The findings deepen the political-geographical understanding of the internal heterogeneity of the African region, as they make it possible to move beyond a generalized perception of Africa toward the analysis of institutional profiles of individual states. The proposed typology has practical significance for Ukraine’s foreign policy, as it enables a differentiated assessment of potential partners in Africa, taking into account their institutional capacity, stability, and interaction risks.

The results of the study may be used in planning the prioritization of Ukraine’s diplomatic, economic, and security cooperation with different groups of African countries.